During election campaigns, opinion polls are intended as a measure of the mood of the population. The media comment abundantly on the smallest differences. Observers use it to predict election results. How voters do are reached for 2024 presidential election predictions, and what do they really tell? Here are three main ways the voters are reached for understanding what they feel about the heartbeat of your constituent.
Methods of conducting electoral polling survey
Polls punctuate political and media life, and each election is an opportunity to ask questions, often legitimate, about them. There are three main ways to reach your selection of voters.
- telephone interview
- Interview of interactive audio server
- Internet panels
At the height of telephone interviews in the late 1980s, pollsters received up to 70% of responses, and as many as 85% of respondents agreed to reveal their voting intentions. Today we are talking about a response rate of less than 20%.
In addition, with the proliferation of telephone service providers, it is difficult to create a comprehensive list of all telephone numbers. Finally, mobile phone numbers are often omitted from the lists. According to a study, this would instantly eliminate people without landlines: 13% of households and a share of young adults.If a cell phone number is included, this type of phone billing method will have a low response rate.
Interview via interactive audio server
This is a telephone interview in which participants answer pre-recorded questions using the telephone's numeric keypad or a voice recognition system. for e.g., pre-recorded questions about Rishi Sunak Approval Rating be created in an audio server; the selected voter's opinion is recorded for those questions.
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Internet panels consist of individuals who survey firms have recruited. These individuals agree to receive periodic email invitations to participate in surveys. Panel members choose whether to respond to certain surveys that can be completed online at their convenience. Therefore, they are not probability tests.
Committee members receive a token amount for each entry or participate in a drawing with prizes of thousands of dollars.
Participation rates for online panels on the Chicago Mayoral Race Poll range from 30% to 45%, and web surveys cost up to 30% less than phone surveys.
Nothing prevents a person from registering multiple times using different email addresses. Leger Marketing performs certain checks by comparing participants' responses with the profile data provided during registration and checking computer IP addresses.
The Internet panel automatically excludes those who do not have access to the Internet, which is 20% of the population according to online statistics. Generally, these are uneducated seniors.
The effect of electoral polls on voting
Do polls affect votes? In some circumstances, voters appear to be influenced by opinion polls. For example, some abstain when victory is certain or make strategic votes based on the party's popularity (as polls have revealed). Note, however, that this type of effect is not observed for all choices.
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